Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 22 June 2023

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Professor Michael McMahon:

I am happy to respond. The Deputy is correct that Ireland does not naturally have a pot of oil or anything like it. However, one of the natural resources Ireland has is a highly skilled labour force, which is one of the reasons many high-skills sectors have been attracted here. We should always be proud of that.

On the point about relating things to debt, as I laid out in my opening statement, if the Government sticks to the SPU plans and if the macro forecasts are correct - it is hard to do macro forecasts - it is estimated that Ireland's debt will fall from 69% to 46%. We estimate that approximately 16 percentage points of that drop will come from prudent behaviour on saving the excess corporation tax. That is related to debt. We have made this point quite strongly. Right now, we have challenges in inflation, though they are higher in some neighbouring countries. In May, Ireland recorded 6.6% of the harmonised index of consumer prices, which is still far higher than the European Central Bank's target, which we should be aiming for. In some areas, particularly food, it is running much hotter than that. There is definitely a sense in which thinking about how decisions are made,adds to the overall levels of demand in a tight and fairly hot economy. We are in favour of that.

I will endorse a point we make often, namely, that planning and the fiscal framework are important for ensuring credibility on the international stage. We have seen historically in Ireland that it can change quickly, but we have also seen in recent years in neighbouring countries that it can change quickly when the frameworks that are put in place for sensible planning are not respected. Therefore, it is important that this committee, the Government, we and all the stakeholders recognise what I said in my opening statement: that we are in a fortunate position right now to be in a relatively strong economy with a good fiscal position. However, the decisions that are taken have important implications and should be made carefully.