Mr. Gergely Moln?r:

Good morning. It is a great honour to share with the committee the opening remarks of today's session on behalf of the International Energy Agency. I intend to focus primarily on issues related to gas and energy supply security.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year triggered the world's first truly global energy crisis and the International Energy Agency reacted swiftly. We co-ordinated two agreements on oil stock releases, leading to 180 million barrels of oil committed to the market, which is by far the largest oil stock release in our history. The agency has also acted rapidly to provide advice to policymakers with actionable short-term measures identified in a ten-point plan on reducing the European Union's reliance on Russian gas and a ten-point plan to cut oil use. At the end of 2022, we released two reports focusing on the 2023 gas balance and how the EU can avoid gas shortages in the new year.

Global gas markets have moved towards a gradual rebalancing since the beginning of 2023 due to timely policy action, effectively working market forces and favourable weather conditions. Nevertheless, the short-term gas supply outlook remains tight and the global gas balance is subject to an unusually wide range of uncertainties. Acknowledging this, the agency hosted a special ministerial meeting on natural gas markets and supply security in mid-February. The meeting was co-chaired by the Minister, Deputy Eamon Ryan, and the agency is grateful for the support provided by Ireland, which was essential to the success of the event. Forty governments took part in the meeting to discuss how to foster gas supply security and highlight the need for structural gas demand reduction and enhanced dialogue between consumers and responsible gas producers.

The current energy crisis has further strengthened the drive behind clean energy policies and weighs on the prospects of fossil fuels, including natural gas. Energy projects which reached final investment decision, FID, and-or are under construction would add over 200 billion cubic metres, BCM, per year of liquefaction capacity through the 2024-28 period. This strong increase in LNG production capacity would loosen market fundamentals and ease gas supply security concerns through the second half of the decade. The need for additional investments remains uncertain beyond that horizon. In the stated policy scenarios which show us the trajectory implied by today's policy settings, and in which the net-zero aspirations are not reached, global natural gas demand expands by around 9% from today's levels by 2030 and then stays broadly flat. In this scenario, an additional 240 BCM per year of LNG export capacity is needed by 2015 above what currently exists or is under construction.

In the net zero emissions by 2050 scenario, in which global gas demand declines by 70% by 2050, there is no need for any additional investment in new energy liquefaction capacity and in some cases even products already under construction will not be needed anymore. In these times of unprecedented uncertainties, consumers and responsible producers should work closely together to reinforce the fundamentals of gas supply security. They should reduce the emission intensity of gas and energy supply, and facilitate the deployment of technologies, including carbon capture, utilisation and storage, CCUS, which could mitigate the investment risks associated with natural gas and LNG. In parallel, gas demand should be reduced in a structured manner, both through measures enhancing energy efficiency standards and by accelerating the deployment of low emission energy sources. I thank the committee for its attention and remain at its disposal for any comments and questions, both now and later.