Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 22 March 2023

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Stability Programme Update: Discussion

Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

I was coming on to the interest rate issue, which is hugely important. It affects demand almost instantaneously. We have already seen it with the pick-up in the variable rate. That immediately impacts housing demand because it immediately impacts a large number of potential house buyers. It impacts the amount they can borrow, which has a direct relationship with house prices. There are a lot of moving parts in this but over the next 12 months we expect house prices to grow, though at a much reduced pace. Beyond that, it will depend on the inflationary outlook and whether monetary authorities continue to tighten policy towards the end of the year.