Ms Martina Mannion:

Obviously, a key factor in determining the level of provision required is to look at the prevalence of special educational needs. The Department had previously been working off the figures that were generally in use, including from the Department of Health, which in 2018 identified the prevalence rates, particularly of autism, in the Irish population. A review of the data sources indicated a 1.5% rate. Significant additional work has been done since.

In looking at our forward planning model, the Department has undertaken a very detailed analysis of what has happened in the last number of years to accurately understand. We are now working off a figure of 3.38% in terms of making provision across the system. In that context, in terms of the forward planning piece, we have had a very detailed analysis of our forecasts over the past two years to analyse the difference between the level of provision we had intended to provide and the actual level of provision we ultimately provided. We have undertaken a thorough analysis of the profile of pupils in special schools in special classes held by the National Council for Special Education, NCSE. We have undertaken a review of the data that is held on the Department's primary pupil and post-primary pupil databases. We looked at the number of children in special classes at primary level transitioning to post-primary level. We also looked at the number of children in primary transitioning to special schools.

We reviewed the numbers of children attending these classes compared with the overall student population at county level but more specifically, at school planning area level. Obviously it is at school planning area level that we need to make the extra provision. Then we looked at the emerging evidence on the level of complex needs among young children, particularly in relation to autism. Out of that detailed work, which has been ongoing over a number of months and which was undertaken by a team in the Department's special education section, the National Council for Special Education and the planning and building unit, we now have a much more detailed forecasting model for the level of provision that will be required over the next three years. That is very much aligning with the forward planning work in the building unit, which is also looking at demographics, students from Ukraine and other issues which have to be factored into accommodation.

The Deputy spoke about areas outside of autism but if one looks at special classes in school provision, 92% of all new special classes opened in the last three years have been for children with autism. That is clearly where the growth is in terms of the additional special education provision that has been identified as being needed. Furthermore, in the last two years, we looked at children who are in post-primary special classes and where they have come from. About one third have come from special classes at primary level. Another third have come from within the post-primary school itself. These are children who were already in post-primary schools who did not initially need a special class but as they got older, their needs changed and they then needed post-primary provision. The final third are children who were in mainstream primary schools. These are children who could have managed in a smaller primary setting but who struggled to adapt in a larger post-primary setting.

We have now set out a detailed model as to how we are going to meet this need. We are going to have to continue to deliver the same number of special classes at primary level but we are going to need to double the number of classes at post-primary level over the next three years. The big focus is on ensuring that we have enough provision at post-primary level. The work that my colleague, Mr. Loftus, spoke about in terms of the reconfiguration of existing buildings and new school buildings is going to be a key part of our work in ensuring that we have the physical accommodation available to support these classes.

From our perspective in special education, however, it is not just about the classrooms. We need to make sure that schools have early notification of where those classes are going to be required. We also need to have a good spread of these classes across the country and across towns. As Mr. Loftus said, we envisage that ultimately, every post-primary school in this country will have special education classes. We have spoken to the post-primary stakeholders and they are aware of that. We are now looking at what is needed for 2023, 2024 and 2025 and at ensuring a good spread across the country. The key piece is that we now know what is needed and we now have a plan, with the building unit and the NCSE, as to how to deliver it. The early notification to schools of where it is needed is critical because we want the schools to be able to recruit the staff and get training and support from the NCSE. We also want to make sure that all the grants that we provide for equipment are ready to go in order that children can go into these classes in September 2023.