Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 18 January 2023

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Social Protection

General Scheme of the Automatic Enrolment Retirement Savings System Bill 2022: Discussion (Resumed)

Dr. David Begg:

I wish to clarify one thing that I said on the demographic trends where I gave some slightly wrong information. The longitudinal study on ageing, TILDA, which is carried out by the ESRI and Trinity College Dublin, said in 2010 that the ratio was 5.4 workers to one pensioner. The projection is that by 2055, this ratio will be to 2.3 workers to one pensioner. There is a qualification on that, in that this largely depends on other factors like immigration and fertility rates. I believe that fertility rates here at the moment are at 1.84 and the replacement rate is approximately 2.1 and that will probably not change very much. We do not know, however, how immigration will pan out in the future but that is the best forecast we have.