Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

I might ask Dr. Casey to comment in a moment. We take the 5% spending rule and that gives a maximum sum in billions of euro that can be spent in each of these years. We then carry out what we call the standstill exercise whereby we say what the figure will be if the Government continues to provide welfare payments of similar levels in real terms and allowing for inflation. What is making the difference here is that aging costs are kicking in. It is not on a massive scale, as will be the case in ten or 15 years, but it is weighing on the public finances in a material way each year. We have to find much more money for pensions than we did in the previous year.

If we compare those two figures, we end up with a shortfall. If we spent the 5% rule and looked at how much it cost to stand still, it would be more costly to stand still by €800 million. Dr. Casey might give some context on how much additional spending there could be per year and how it fits in.