Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 30 November 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

I remember it well. It is good to come back to these things and discuss how things have or have not changed. Overall, it was important in the budget, as we said then, to protect lower income households, which are facing massive pressures, and winter is upon us now. What we said was important, and I have just said it again, namely, that the challenge is to balance that. The constraint is that putting more money into the economy will lead to higher inflation and could risk being counterproductive. That was the kind of trade-off we were talking about. At that time, the Government had an amount that was put in the budget for temporary measures. That was the kind of figure we were working with; we did not particularly endorse that figure. It was not the only one, but we used it as a natural reference point because it was the point the Government was using. In the event, the Government has taken more temporary measures than anticipated at the time. Our assessment is that they are still within an appropriate range of policies, which is why we reached the judgment we have. We also did not know at the time what the balance would be between permanent and temporary measures but one needs to look at the package as a whole.