Mr. Denis Drennan:

The Senator asked some excellent questions. The shock is that farmers could receive letters this time next year telling them that they will have to reduce their herds by up to 26%. That will depend on water quality results for this year and next year. The water quality results are normally released in July but for some reason, the Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, has not released them yet. Here we are, in the middle of September and we have no idea where water quality trends have gone for 2021. This time next year we will be getting water quality results for 2022 and if there is a significant change in either direction, a decision will be made, sent to Europe and will come back to farmers by the end of next year. Farmers could end up getting letters in November or December next year telling them they have to destock by 26% by 1 January 2025. It is not like this is way out in the distance; it is critically close.

As our president said, we are not happy with the volume of information on banding coming from the Department. At the moment we are not certain which band any of us, as farmers, will fit into because the banding system is based on 2021 and 2022 stocking rates versus the volume of milk produced on a holding. We are still seeking clarity on which cows will be counted in that system but we cannot get that. We cannot even establish which band we would have fitted into for the past three years or for this year and the previous two. There is huge uncertainty. People are not sure where they are going or what they are doing, yet they are being asked to make huge investment decisions on their farms and co-operatives are making huge investments on their behalf as well.

The Senator mentioned an excess of stainless steel. The issue, as our president has said numerous times, is that farmers have spent huge amounts to be compliant with regulations but those regulations keep changing every year. We have banding this year and we have cuts in the nitrogen allowance this year that are going to have a significant effect. The number of cows in the country could be cut by between 15% and 20%, as the Senator suggested and which is probably pretty accurate. Not only have farmers made investments on their own farms that will have to be paid for from fewer cows and less milk, but the co-operatives have also spent money on behalf of farmers that will have to be recouped from a smaller milk pool. There is a double-whammy coming if the number of cows in the country is cut and the production of milk is reduced.