Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 23 March 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Pre-Stability Programme Update Scrutiny (Resumed): Central Bank of Ireland

Dr. Mark Cassidy:

I will ask Dr. O'Brien to mention some figures in a moment. We are looking at worse scenarios compared to the central scenario I mentioned in my opening response. However, they are not worst-case scenarios. We are looking at scenarios where there are even higher gas and oil prices in international markets for even longer than the market currently expects. They are very bad scenarios, and we are looking at two such ones, but they are not worst-case scenarios. All of them assume the conflict remains within Ukraine, for example. There would be much worse scenarios than that and we do not have numbers around those. We are developing some of these adverse scenarios. We will be referencing them and will publish them to an extent in our upcoming bulletin.