Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

No, we do not but, unfortunately, the way energy prices are set at a European level means that if there is a huge energy price shock at a European level, it ultimately impacts the Irish consumer even though we do not have any or very little direct gas exposure to Russia. In terms of the effect on the Irish economy and this general one-to-one relationship, what that reflects is how open an economy we are and how dependent we are in terms of economic growth. The traded sector of our economy is hugely important, particularly the multinational element of that. We saw that during the pandemic. The multinational element of our traded sector actually performed very strongly, which is why overall economic growth actually increased in 2020 when economic growth in every other country was declining. We are hugely dependent on the traded sector of the economy. Overall, what you would expect and what the preliminary ECB analysis is suggesting is that the crisis will have a contractionary impact on the euro area economy. Obviously, the US and UK economies will more than likely be impacted. These are the major economies as far as we are concerned with regard to the kind of trade we do, so even though we do not have the same direct exposure to Russia as those economies, the fact they are being hit and adversely impacted by the crisis will ultimately affect us.

It is worth saying that the ECB figure is very preliminary in analysis in terms of what the ECB has actually stated. The other work that was arguably a bit more developed in the sense that it came out after that suggested more in the region of a one percentage point decline in economic activity due to the Russian crisis, so I would focus more on that figure being the overall global and euro area effect at this stage rather than the preliminary ECB analysis. More analysis will come from the ECB in that regard. This is why it would have an effect on the Irish economy because we are so reliant on our traded sector and that is so reliant on the UK, US and euro area economies.