Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 2 February 2022

Joint Oireachtas Committee on European Union Affairs

Potential Russia-Ukraine Conflict and the Role of the European Union: Discussion

Professor Donnacha ? Beach?in:

There will not be troops on the ground. That is quite clear from EU member states. Ukrainians are not expecting that. Sometimes they find the reluctance to facilitate the arming of Ukrainians to protect themselves bewildering. That was brought forth in the last week or two when having been requested to provide military assistance, the Germans sent 5,000 helmets. Vitali Klitschko, the Mayor of Kyiv, said it was a joke and asked if they might send pillows next. That is the level of support. Sanctions plus military supplies, particularly anti-aircraft equipment, are about the maximum people are expecting. I do not think anybody is expecting troops on the ground for a variety of reasons.

The German Chancellor has said that prudent sanctions should be considered. It was unclear what he meant by that. He stressed that the countries initiating the sanctions would also suffer, by which, of course, he meant Germany. I do not know if the Germans would revisit it in retrospect, but Germany's decision on Nord Stream 2 was remarkable. It was very poorly received by Germany's neighbours in the EU. Poland and the Baltic states saw it as a way of guaranteeing that German customers would keep German gas even if it was switched off for Ukraine in order to exert political leverage as had been done in the past. The Deputy is right in stressing the importance of this. It reasserts the need to move to alternative forms of energy. Addiction to gas has been flagged as a problem for many years and we need to find alternatives.

Brexit and not having the UK simply means one less powerful voice at the table at international institutions. Because the EU does not act as a single voice, the member states are often act on behalf of the EU at international institutions, such as the Council of Europe, the OSCE and even the UN. With the UK having left the EU, we have gone from having two EU permanent members of the UN Security Council to one. It has been halved. Again, it is a weaker voice on these international institutions.