Dr. Karina Doorley:

I will take the first question on budget 2022. We looked at this for budget 2022. We compared the actual changes announced to the tax benefits system to what would have happened if the system had been indexed in line with forecast price growth for 2022. This is a little bit different from the way indexation typically operates because it is generally backward-looking, so we are looking at adjustments based on inflation over the last year. We compared it to what would happen if you indexed in line with forecast price growth for next year. At the time forecast price growth was 2.2%, if I remember right. That has grown since then. This is the issue with using a forecast rather than using a historic series for this. We estimated that welfare payments at least were expected to keep pace with forecast inflation of 2.1%. There were a few exceptions. The thresholds for the working families payment were increased by slightly less than forecast inflation. Child benefit was frozen in nominal terms. Those two benefits were not keeping pace with inflation but, by and large, the others were or almost were. The cost differential there would not have been too much if we were looking at a forecast inflation measure for indexing the welfare system at least.