Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 26 January 2022

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Indexation of Taxation and Social Protection System: Discussion

Dr. Tom McDonnell:

Wages, on average, will be in excess of price inflation. Absolutely, it is the case that there will be quarters and years when price inflation exceeds average wage growth. The Deputy is right as well in that there is obviously significant heterogeneity between the economic sectors at the moment. This reflects the tightness of the different sectors and the fact that some have been locked down. Overall though, wage growth in the economy is reasonably strong. I would anticipate that wage growth will be very strong next year.

Earlier today, the Central Bank projected inflation of 4.5%. I would still expect average wage growth to exceed to 4.5%. That would mean that if there were backward-looking, welfare aids, admittedly, with a lag, it would still be growing at a faster pace over the medium term than the cost of living. That means that quality of life, poverty, deprivation - all of those indicators - should gradually improve. Also, in the context of relativities, the overall picture in terms of the income inequality distribution should broadly improve. The Deputy is right that there are sectors of the economy where wages are not tracking true just yet. However, I anticipate that this will change as we move through 2022.