Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 8 December 2021
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
Mr. Sebastian Barnes:
If we examine what would happen at that point, we note the rules may be less tight than they seem. The Government's plans would have the debt ratio falling pretty sharply. That would be one of the requirements of the rules. We would also be close to balance, as per one of the requirements of the rules. The debt dynamics are quite favourable in this environment because interest rates are a lot lower than growth. There are circumstances where the rules can be very binding. On the basis of the arithmetic in Italy in the years prior to the crisis, for example, we see it was an issue. However, even if in 2023 Ireland became subject to the rules due to some drastic change in GDP, what the Deputy describes would not kick in if there were no drastic change in the state of the economy. It would not be a problem in practice.