Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 8 December 2021
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
Dr. Eddie Casey:
The Deputy was correct to point out that figure. The way to view it is that we start with what the budget sets out as the cost of maintaining the existing level of services, which is €2.2 billion in 2023 and 2024 and then €2.5 billion by the end. If one fully accounts for what we believe will be the cost of just standing still, allowing for demographic and price pressures in those years and bearing in mind that we fully index everything to wages, in which context we assume that welfare payments and pensions will rise in line with general economy wages, then we believe that the space that will be absorbed will be greater at perhaps €500 million to €1 billion. The remaining bit that is unallocated and that the Government has set down as its increase in core current spending every year shrinks to approximately €500 million when the extra standstill cost that we estimate is allowed for.