Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 24 November 2021

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Inflation: Discussion (resumed)

Dr. Mark Cassidy:

I might address one point. The Deputy made a very important point about the effect of inflationary pressures on the delivery of the national development plan and ensuring that we get our money's worth in that regard. As the Deputy knows, what is planned in terms of capital investment in the coming decade is extremely significant.

Capital spending will be increased to very high levels, which we think is very welcome, in order to address the infrastructure and housing deficits that currently exist, to meet our climate change targets and to enhance productivity. The challenge that Deputy Canney is alluding to is that we are already seeing inflationary pressures in this sector and rising construction costs, tender prices, labour shortages and levels of demand. The challenge over the next decade will be to get the most out of the money that we are spending in this area. That is something we also need to monitor.

I will mention a number of things in this regard. First, the construction sector and the housing sector in particular will undoubtedly need significant additional labour over the period. An important element is how the economy can attract that labour. Estimates are for perhaps an additional 30,000 to 40,000 workers. It will not be as easy to attract labour from abroad, for example, in construction as it was in the 2000s when wages here were much higher than in some other countries. Second, the level of productivity in the sector is particularly low and lags behind that some other countries. In order to deliver successfully on those plans, that productivity deficit will need to be addressed. Third, we will need to manage delivery and ensure that cost overruns are limited. If we are to get the most bang for our buck in capital delivery, those are the three things I would point to. If they can be achieved, then what has been proposed is very welcome and necessary for this economy.