Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 24 November 2021

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Inflation: Discussion (resumed)

Dr. Mark Cassidy:

The Governor has answered it well. In terms of energy prices, what is somewhat unusual about the current crisis is that energy prices are increasing by equally significant amounts right across the board. It is not just fuel prices and petrol. It is also electricity and gas. This reflects developments in all parts of the international energy markets. Oil prices, natural gas prices and costs of shipping transportation have increased very significantly.

In terms of future developments, what we can say is that futures markets indicate that there is an expectation that prices of gas and oil will begin to decline somewhere around the first quarter of next year and gradually reducing back towards pre-pandemic levels but there is enormous uncertainty. Futures prices are the best way we have of estimating what the future paths might be but they are certainly not always right. There is a lot of uncertainty and I think that is the most we can say. The economic factors suggest that these temporary factors, that we can point to as causing these prices, one would expect that they would begin to gradually ease.