Dr. Brian Caulfield:

I am an associate professor at the centre for transport research at Trinity College Dublin. I thank the Chair and members of the committee for the invitation to speak to them again about transportation and emissions. I congratulate the committee on the fantastic report it published last month on this topic.

Before discussing EVs, there are some fundamental issues to consider regarding private vehicles in general regardless of how they are fuelled. They take up a large amount of space in the built environmental with roads and parking. They spend approximately 95% of their time parked. Cars cause congestion, as we all know. In 2017, it was estimated this could cost up to €2.08 billion in 2033 in the greater Dublin area. Cars also cause air quality issues, particularly regarding particulate matter and particularly EVs because they are heavier. Policies that promote EVs should consider a number of important factors to ensure the viability of investment and its impact.

A just transition as well as cost are key in electric vehicle policymaking. Research that we have conducted in TCD shows that the highest concentrations of electric vehicle ownership tend to be in the most affluent areas in Ireland. As Mr. Cazzola has mentioned, the charging network required for these in Ireland will be extensive. In our urban areas there is a challenge of where to put charging spaces. The data on the number of households with driveways for parking is poor. In 2017, a household survey in Dublin found that just 44% had a driveway. I am involved in research in the Terrain-AI3 project funded by Science Foundation Ireland and Microsoft. We are using aerial imagery to find driveways and using machine learning to count them and get more accurate data. This is important because driveways are the most efficient place to charge vehicles.

In 2019, the average price of the top three selling EVs was €32,500. The average price of the top three selling EVs in the first six months of this year was €43,000. All of these prices exclude the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, SEAI, grants. This shows our tastes are changing but so too is the average price Irish customers are choosing to pay. The debate on when the price of electric vehicles will reach parity with non-electric vehicles is varied. Industry commentators and academics provide strong arguments for both sides. However, the timeline for when parity is likely to happen is unclear. As such, any policy depending or based on parity needs to be afforded some level of risk.

Ireland has ambitious EV targets but so do many other countries in Europe and around the world. Ireland will be competing for the supply of these vehicles and supply issues may impact our ability to reach goals and fulfil our ambition. Government subvention in this market works and many examples from around the world show that when they are taken away the demand falls. Countries such as Norway provide extensive monetary and non-monetary incentives to encourage this transition. Research conducted by the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform on the current incentives show a benefit-cost ratio of replacing a petrol car with an electric vehicle of 0.1444.

The carbon projections for Ireland in the transport field are clear. We need to throw the kitchen sink at the issue to meet the 51% carbon reduction. We need to be clever in how we spend available incentives for EVs to make sure we get the greatest carbon reductions. Some of the following policies need to be considered. The second-hand EV car market needs incentives to ensure it is healthy. This will help to reduce the cost of these vehicles and assist in a just transition. Of the used cars for sale this morning on carzone.ie, only 3% are electric. As previously stated, cars spend 95% of their time parked. My research shows that shared cars have the potential to reduce car ownership and encourage a greater use of non-car modes. A national pilot for shared electric vehicles should be considered. Research conducted by the ITF on Dublin shows that shared options have the ability to yield significant benefits.

Ireland has more than 21,000 taxis. Incentives to electrify this fleet to date have been unsuccessful. This is a large fleet that could be converted with greater engagement with the industry. We need to look at the promotion of electric bicycles. These are also electric vehicles. Their ability to decarbonise and decongest our cities and urban areas is an important element we need to examine. Rural Ireland has a number or areas experiencing transport disadvantage. These areas also have high emissions, which are primarily caused by the distances that have to be travelled. Electric vehicles may be the most effective way to decarbonise these areas. Targeted incentives need to be considered.

I thank the committee for its invitation to speak. I will welcome discussion and questions.