Professor Alan Matthews:

I want to add something on the carbon leakage question. I agree with the comments made by Ms O'Neill. The first point I would make is that it is important to bear in mind that we cannot assume the current situation is the appropriate counterfactual and things will continue as usual. There will be, and already is, huge pressure coming from the supply chain, that is, from the supermarkets and processors, which have taken on climate commitments themselves - in many cases, they have taken on net-zero commitments - and want to secure them through their supply chain. If we do not make the changes that are necessary, we will simply find ourselves losing out on existing markets.

The second point I would make is to stress that carbon leakage will occur. In any traded commodity, it is clear that if standards are increased in one country, some production will move offshore. The question is whether we will increase global emissions, which obviously would not be a desirable outcome of policy. This is an empirical question and my own assessment, if we could go into it, is that it is unlikely to happen. Most of the competition for Irish beef is either from the UK or other EU member states, all of which will have stricter binding targets on emissions. There is a limit to which increased production in those countries can replace any reduction in Irish output. In terms of international competition, we need to remember there is already a very high level of border protection against third-country imports. In the case of fresh and frozen beef, it is a tariff of approximately 45%, on average. There is a limited likelihood that we would see global emissions increasing. As I said, however, it is an empirical question. The claim in this regard is often made without very much evidence.