Professor Mark Ferguson:

Indeed, there are people who worry about the accuracy of a rapid-flow antigen test. I guess it is the difference between a diagnostic for an individual patient and a screening device for the population. A screening device for the population has to be easy to use, cheap, very straightforward and have a good degree of accuracy. In my opinion, one in 1,000 is an acceptable level for a false test. In the opinion of some other people, it is not. They would want it to be one in 100,000 or whatever. That is just a matter of opinion. I think much of the worry is about the accuracy of the test. Another worry is people misunderstanding the test, so they believe if they get a negative test they can go crazy. This is what is called a risk transfer type of argument. The same argument was made about condoms, seat belts and so forth, that people were going to misbehave. That is not the way to look at it.

I view antigen testing in the context in which we are discussing it as a health and safety measure. If one wears a bicycle helmet, does one ride the bicycle more dangerously than if one did not wear the helmet? I do not think so. It is the same type of argument here. The people who are worried about testing worry partly about the accuracy per se and they worry about the potential behavioural changes that may occur after that. My personal view is that the public are very well educated. They know the challenges of Covid-19, and it is a terrible disease. They are aware of the problems of severe lockdown and restriction of economic and social activity. I believe that one should explain to people that this is a screening tool, a way of trying to increase the safety of the population and, as a Deputy said earlier, to give people confidence to go back onto an aeroplane or to go to a restaurant, hotel or to work. Yes, there will be some cases where it is inaccurate and one may be one of the unfortunate people who get an inaccurate test but, by and large, it is much better than doing nothing and much better than having a complete lockdown. Most people will understand that. I have a great deal more faith in human nature, that most people will not misbehave and that they will do the test and comply. We cannot devise a system for a very small number of people who are obviously not going to work it the way we would want. The vast number of people would, because they are keen to get back to their lives.

That is clearly an opinion, and there are different opinions. I have tried to summarise what I see as the opinion in this area. I must say that the tests are getting more accurate and the weight of evidence behind using them is becoming ever more compelling.