Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

The Deputy is correct that there are many uncertainties. How those uncertainties resolve and become clear is a big question. In terms of vaccine costs and so on, we have estimates we took to the Department of Finance in our report. The sums involved are not huge. When one thinks of the savings in terms of not having to lock down the economy from time to time, there is obviously a significant gain in that sense. We hope the vaccine will eventually provide some kind of solution, whether that involves an annual vaccination or whatever. It is basically very encouraging but we do not really know how it works at scale. The experience so far is that the phase 3 trial is very extensive but, ultimately, does not involve a significant number of cases. We are still learning a significant amount about the vaccine. Much will depend on time. The months between now and the vaccine being distributed could be quite challenging. One of the pieces of good news from this autumn is that although lockdowns are obviously very costly and have a major impact on the economy and society, we have learned that we can be somewhat more selective in that regard than we were in spring. That can be seen in the way less of the economy has been badly disrupted compared with the situation in spring. The economic impact in autumn is much less than it was previously. We have a better handle on how to manage those things.