Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Thursday, 8 October 2020

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Pre-Budget Engagement: Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform

Photo of Michael McGrathMichael McGrath (Cork South Central, Fianna Fail)
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They are two separate issues. On sovereign borrowing, while we are able to borrow at historically low interest rates we are taking on additional debt and while we have certainty about the servicing costs of that debt for the duration of the bond, it will mature and have to be refinanced. We could be in a very different environment when it comes to those debt instruments maturing.

We need to be careful about the decisions we make. The interest rate might be close to zero now, but in ten or 15 years time when the bond expires, the cost of borrowing could be dramatically higher. We do not want to have a situation where a proportion of our tax revenue that we are receiving as a Government is going on servicing debt. We have to think down the line and make sure that our national debt is sustainable in overall terms.

As the Deputy knows, the key measure is the size of the national debt relative to the size of the economy. That is why having economic growth is so important. The projection for next year is very much dependent on Covid which, in turn, is very dependent on the next four weeks and whether we get a trade deal in the Brexit negotiations. If we can continue to grow the economy, get back to growth next year and manage the deficit in a safe and responsible way, our debt sustainability will be secure. We take advice from our debt management agency as to how the markets would view Ireland in different scenarios. That is an important factor because once the ECB withdraws supports the markets will take a view. We want to be in a good space.

In regard to borrowing costs for other customers in our banking system here, whether they be business customers or mortgage borrowers the statistics show that borrowing costs here are higher. We have been given various explanations as to why that is the case. When it comes to mortgage rates, they are falling which is to be welcomed. There is some competition and new entrants are coming into the Irish market. I would encourage all consumers to shop around. There are probably around 100,000 mortgage holders in Ireland who would get a better deal by going elsewhere. In many cases, they would get a better deal with their existing institutions. They should seek to do that. That is what will ensure that everybody gets the best value from their loans. We will continue to work on the issue.