Dr. Tomás Ryan:

I wish to come in briefly. I do not think anyone here is really advocating for herd immunity because of what it would cost. There was a question about shielding. It needs to be pointed out that, notwithstanding the calamities that occurred within nursing homes in countries like Sweden, Ireland and Canada, no country in the world has succeeded in shielding the elderly and vulnerable. We have between 1 million and 1.5 million people in that category in Ireland. They have to interact with everyone else.

If one looks at countries that have ostensibly attempted shielding, it has led to failure. If one looks at successful countries such as South Korea or Taiwan, they have never had a policy of shielding, yet they have not had a high death rate among the elderly. If one reduces the virus among the young population, by which I mean people aged 20 to 50, then one reduces it for everyone. The elderly and vulnerable then live in a safe environment. That can be consistent with a suppression scenario, as Professor Schaffer is advocating. I think it is best served by an elimination scenario. It is not served by herd immunity or by what we currently have, which is reactive mitigation.