Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 7 July 2020

Special Committee on Covid-19 Response

Impact of Covid-19: Overall Fiscal and Monetary Position

Mr. Frank O'Connor:

Regarding rate expectations, looking at commentary from the ECB governing council concerning rates being likely to stay at current levels or lower until inflation approaches closer to 2%, the ECB target, and looking at the staff forecasts - and colleagues around the table might confirm this - 2023 is the current estimate for inflation to return to that level. That gives us the current project.

Turning to the longer term, we do give it serious consideration and it also has to match investor appetite and demand. We have been going longer. Just last year, we did our second 30-year bond. It had never been done before. While I would not overplay this, we have had some sales of 100-year notes. Those are reverse inquiries. We did about €400 million already this year in reverse inquiries, and we have done some 59 and 60-year transactions as well.

It is part of the spectrum, therefore. We have investors interested in one-year issuance, to five-year issuance and all the way out. We do, however, have to give consideration to all parts of the spectrum and concerning one of the longest average lives, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, we already have tended to lean to the longer end. It must not be forgotten, however, that if we were to suddenly do all our bonds at one extreme, the price we achieve today would be different because it would be a surprise to the market when there starts to be oversupply of that part of the curve.