Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 4 December 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Dr. Martina Lawless:

On the Deputy's question on a no-deal Brexit, we endorse the budget forecasts of the Department of Finance based on the idea that there was a very high risk in September and October of a no-deal Brexit. I believe that was an appropriate approach to take at the time. Since 17 October, a withdrawal agreement was signed. This is very much reliant on the next week's political developments in the United Kingdom. We see the risk as having receded quite considerably relative to the circumstances in October and November. The concern now really moves to what happens over the next year in terms of the negotiation of the second stage. Assuming the withdrawal agreement is completely ratified, a free trade agreement is scheduled to be negotiated over what is really an incredibly short period. One year up to the end of 2020 is a very short time internationally for a significant-----