Dr. Eamon Haughey:

I thank the committee for inviting me to attend. It is an honour to be able to present some of the key findings from the report. In the interests of time, I will not go through this presentation in detail but I will refer to some of the graphical elements from the summary for policymakers. I will show those on the screen as I go.

The IPCC’s special report on climate change and land was approved by governments in Geneva in August 2019. It is the second of three special reports of the current IPCC assessment cycle, building on the special report on global warming of 1.5°C approved in 2018. The report was prepared under the scientific leadership of all three IPCC working groups including the task force on national greenhouse gas inventories. This came at the request of seven member governments - including Ireland, it is important to note - for a report focusing specifically on land and its interactions with climate change. The report was prepared by 107 experts from 52 countries and was the first IPCC report with a majority of authors, 53%, from developing countries.

The following is a summary of some of the key messages. Land is a critical resource upon which we all rely but it is under increasing pressure from humans and climate change. Through sustainable management, land can be an important part of the solution to climate change but land cannot do it all. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from all sectors is essential if global warming is to be kept to well below 2°C.

I will now outline some of the key messages from the summary for policymakers. I should point out that this summary condenses the assessment of seven chapters of the main report and if any member of the committee wants further detail on any sections, I am happy to direct them to the right chapter.

Starting with the current situation, the report assessed key trends in terms of climate change and land use and many of these are summarised in figure SPM1. Humans affect more than 70% of the ice-free land area and a quarter of that land is already in a degraded state. In 2015, approximately 500 million people lived in areas undergoing desertification. That is an increase of 300% since 1961 and therefore one can see that the effects of climate change are exacerbating the situation.

Population growth, changes in consumption of food, feed, fibre, timber and energy have caused unprecedented rates of land and fresh water use in the past 50 years. Since 1961, cereal yields, for example, have increased by 240% globally but so too has the intensity of land use.

Over the same period, there has been an increase of approximately 800% in the rate of nitrogen fertilizer used. There has also been an increase in ruminant livestock numbers globally. Consequently, there has been an increase in both methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture – both of which are potent greenhouse gases. Agriculture, forestry and other types of land use account for 23% of human greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, on the other side of the equation, natural land processes absorb almost one third of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry. The report found that natural carbon sinks and their capacity to continue to store carbon are under threat from climate change and unsustainable land management. It also found that the way we produce food, what we eat, and food loss and food waste all contribute to climate change, the loss of natural ecosystems and declining biodiversity.

To move on to some of the risks assessed, the report assessed risks to human and natural systems as a function of increasing global mean surface temperature. This is shown visually in figure SPM.2 in my submission. Current levels of warming are associated with moderate risks for soil erosion, vegetation loss, coastal degradation and tropical crop yield decline. These are the risks we are already experiencing. At around 2°C of global warming, risks from permafrost degradation and food supply instabilities are projected to be very high. It is also important to consider risks as a function of trends in population and consumption. The report also did this by looking at socioeconomic pathways. It found that pathways with higher demand and lower levels of technological development are associated with higher risks of land degradation, food insecurity and desertification. Further details on pathways and how they look in terms of land use change are also provided in the report, but I will not get into that now, although I can do so if the committee would find it useful.

The report also considered what can be done, that is, solutions. This is one of the most important parts of the report. It looked at solutions in terms of integrated response options to address climate change, including mitigation, adaptation, tackling desertification and land degradation and improving food security. This is shown visually in the table, figure SPM.3. In the interests of time I will go through this quickly and focus on some of the key messages. The message is positive in that many of the response options are positive across all categories. Positive options are highlighted in blue in the submission. Many are at an advanced technology level and many can be undertaken at a relatively low cost. One message to take away is that there is much we can do right now.

The report considered the food system as a whole, that is, both demand and supply. Many response options with regard to production could be applied or upscaled in Ireland. These include improved livestock and pasture management, agricultural diversification, agroforestry, increased productivity through sustainable intensification, and increasing soil carbon. Protection of current carbon stocks and restoration of high carbon ecosystems, which are identified as response options in the table, are applicable in respect of Ireland's peatlands.

On the demand side, the report found that dietary choices present an important route to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and pressures on land. Some dietary choices require more land and water and cause more greenhouse gas emissions than others. Balanced diets, featuring plant-based foods and animal sourced food produced in resilient, sustainable and low greenhouse gas emission systems, present opportunities for adaptation and limiting the effects of climate change with coincident benefits for health. Food loss and waste is also an important issue on the demand side. The report found that between 25% and 30% of total food produced globally is lost or wasted. Reducing food loss and waste presents significant opportunities to improve food security and reduce associated greenhouse gas emissions.

The report also found that some of the response options and their deployment could be a cause of concern. This is specifically related to the deployment of bioenergy and forestry. This needs to be done carefully to avoid negative effects on food security and biodiversity. These measures work best when they are integrated into diverse production systems and located on suitable land. In the interests of time, I will conclude at this point.