Dr. Paul Deane:

I thank the joint committee for inviting us to present our research. MaREI is a Science Foundation Ireland centre for energy, climate and the marine, based in UCC. Analysis we undertook a number of years ago using our detailed European gas and electricity model examined the European energy system from a security of supply perspective. We examined the effect a major supply interruption from Russia would have on Europe. We found that Ireland could sustain an interruption period of up to ten months without the need for LNG infrastructure. Ireland's gas system is strongly linked with the UK gas network. To date in 2019 LNG imports, primarily from Qatar, Russia and Algeria which supply gas from conventional sources rather than fracking, have met approximately one fifth of the United Kingdom's full gas demand. LNG imports of fracked gas from the United States have met approximately 1% of full UK gas demand to date in 2019. Unfortunately, it is impossible to determine how many fracked gas molecules come into Ireland via the United Kingdom, just as it is impossible to determine how many electrons entering Ireland's power system from the United Kingdom derive from nuclear power generation.

Natural gas is used for electricity generation and heating in Ireland and meets one third of our energy needs. Analysis undertaken with colleagues in Europe has found that the introduction of the Celtic interconnector from Ireland to France will further reduce Ireland's need for natural gas, cutting the volume of natural gas used by approximately 7%. Analysis undertaken with colleagues in Europe examined 150 future visions of the full European electricity system. We have found that, while demand for natural gas will reduce slightly in Europe, it provides an important backbone for the reliable and secure delivery of electricity, both in Ireland and elsewhere in Europe.

Indigenous natural gas production contributes to our energy security, but we do not know what the full implications will be of using indigenous gas, rather than imported gas or oil, from a greenhouse gas emissions perspective. Using global average figures, we estimate the indirect greenhouse gas emissions from Ireland's gas imports, those associated with extraction and transportation, at approximately 1 million tonnes for 2017. The comparable figure for oil is 2.7 million tonnes.

Ireland has the potential to increase security of supply and produce clean renewable gas. This will enhance our energy security and reduce emissions. Colleagues in MaREI have demonstrated that this can meet strict new EU sustainability criteria when used for renewable transport. The SEAI has also demonstrated that gas from animal manure, food waste and grass could provide up to one quarter of Ireland's gas needs, cutting emissions by 2 million tonnes and creating 3,000 permanent jobs.

As members will be aware, energy poverty is a significant issue in Ireland and across Europe. Measures to address it will also address issues of security of supply and reduce Ireland's reliance on imported fossil fuels. The gas demand of a typical Irish home, built in 2005 with a gas boiler, will reduce by one half if thermally insulated and upgraded to today's A-rated standard.

MaREI's analysis of Ireland's energy security shows that, while its energy security was decreasing prior to 2017, it was primarily due to a decrease in the security of supply of imported fuels. Most imported fuels come from the United Kingdom, but it is increasingly importing more oil and gas and the security of our primary energy supply has been declining. Ireland's infrastructural and demand security is increasing, but this has not been sufficient to offset the decrease in fuel supply and security. Looking ahead, diversification of fuel types and fuel suppliers and increasing the production of renewable energy will increase Ireland's energy security. MaREI's analysis of future low carbon scenarios shows an increasing trend in energy security as energy efficiency and indigenous renewable energy production grows over time, thereby reducing our dependency on imported energy.

MaREI produced Ireland's first low carbon energy roadmap in 2013. It initially focused on the challenges in meeting an 80% reduction and then a 95% reduction in CO2 relative to levels in 1990. This analysis informed decisions as climate action legislation passed through its different stages. MaREI also recently looked at emissions reductions scenarios that go well beyond the current national ambition of an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions. The paper is attached as an appendix to our official submission.