Dr. Tom McDonnell:

On affordable housing and cost rental, the reality is that although cost rental can lead to lower rents, it will be at the margin and will not be transformatively different. All of these policies will eventually have a downward effect on rents across the board, particularly when housebuilding is scaled up. However, that will take time. One would not expect a reduction in rent levels as a result of a single pilot scheme or that it would happen overnight. Unfortunately, this can only be resolved by a satisfactory and sufficient level of housebuilding in the State, which will have to exceed long-term average demand for several years and reach a level of, at least, approximately 40,000 per year for a sustained period of time. The expectation is that much future job growth will be in the greater Dublin area, which will lead to further population pressures and greater demand for housing there.

Again, the cycle of high rents will continue. There is no silver bullet there, unfortunately. If there is a special purpose vehicle with sufficient scale to borrow at very cheap rates, that can also have a marginal effect on rents down the line.

I would like to speak about the help to buy issue. As I said earlier, tax expenditures are rarely the optimal option in public policy. In my view, they merely act to stimulate demand. At the very least, a high level of deadweight costs is associated with them. My view is that the scheme should be ended. I agree that the Department and the Minister should give an advanced signal if such a decision is to be made. This goes back to the point that the budgetary process should begin on 1 January, if not the previous year. Signals of decisions about much matters should be given in the first half of the year, rather than having a big reveal in October.