Mr. Daniel Keohane:

Is mór an onóir liomsa a bheith anseo le Noelle O'Connell ar son foirne Gluaiseacht na hEorpa in Éirinn. As Ms O'Connell said, there has been a so-called Brexit bounce or dividend reflected in our poll. There is no doubt about that. We asked a specific question about Brexit, namely whether it had improved the respondent's opinion of the European Union. The answer was a strong agree at 58%, but arguably that was not as high as one might expect, given how strong EU support for Ireland’s national interests has been during the Brexit story. Brexit has made us all very aware of how valuable the EU is for our daily lives, even more so than before.

Another way to think about all this is that the Brexit bounce was building on something that was very strong already. In our first poll in 2013, Irish support for EU membership was at 81%. It went up to 93% this year, which is staggeringly high. Support for membership was already high, however, long before Brexit was even being seriously discussed or debated. It is worth bearing in mind that the Brexit effect is purely augmenting something that was very strong already. This is also borne out by other questions in our poll. We asked, for example, if Irish people would be willing to contribute more to the EU budget. If people are willing to pay more for something, it usually indicates that they like it. In this case, 58% agreed with the statement that they would like to contribute more to the EU budget to continue to get the benefits of membership. It is very clear that we are aware of what Ireland has received from the EU and that we want to receive those benefits continuously and for everyone to continue to receive them. It is telling that respondents in Ireland are willing to pay more into the budget. That is not always the image of Ireland in other EU member states because we are seen to have benefitted so much. Now we are willing to pay more.

Since it is 20 years since the common currency, the euro, was launched in 1999, we asked how Irish people feel about it. The question was whether the euro has been a positive thing for Ireland. It was an extremely high positive result; an impressive 86% agreed with the statement. As Ms O'Connell said, I have been away for the past 22 years, since before the euro was launched. It was still punts when I left. Ireland has had a very mixed economic experience over the last 22 years. Let us say it has been very up and down; some would say it has been a roller coaster. Yet the euro is seen as an incredibly positive thing for Ireland. This is interesting in itself. In the UK, it is very common to blame the euro for the economic problems in Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and so on. That is not how Irish people feel about it, it seems. That is the not the story of those of us who use the euro.

We also asked about openness to co-operation in a few more sensitive policy areas, such as tax. As we all know, there is a very interesting debate about tax in Ireland and in the world, for example at the OECD with the United States, France and so on. It surprised all of us at European Movement Ireland that fully half of respondents said they were open to more co-operation on tax. That is a very open statement. It does not refer explicitly to fiscal policy, tax rates, tax bases, corporate tax specifically, or digital tax specifically. It was a very broad question. It does suggest, however, that there might be more openness among the Irish population to discuss tax at EU level than is sometimes perceived from outside.

We also asked about security and defence. For the third year in a row we asked if Ireland should be part of increased co-operation in security and defence. For the third year in a row, we got practically the same answer, with the figure consistently around the 58% mark. This year it was 58%, last year it was 57% and in 2017 it was 59%. That is a striking pattern and it flies in the face of the image that some people have of the Irish debate around these subjects and indeed sometimes the image people have of Irish activity on these subjects. However, this result is lower than some other polls on the subject. For example, in a Eurobarometer poll about a year ago, nearly two thirds said they were for EU security and defence co-operation. It is a slightly different statement but members will get my point. A lot depends on how one frames the question. If one asks people if they want to co-operate with others more, they will generally be more positive. If we ask people if they want to sign up to an EU army, they will generally be much less positive, as was shown by the recent RTÉ-Red C poll, which asked a number of questions about neutrality and had a specific question about joining "European armed forces" which, of course, is not on the table; there is no such proposal. Only a third responded positively in that case. Clearly citizens - the Irish public - know the difference between co-operating with others, as we do at UN level as well, and joining an EU army. It is very important that this distinction is made. It is sometimes missed in the public debate. We saw this during the European Parliament election campaign as well. There is a difference between a European army run by Brussels and governments co-operating on peacekeeping or on having better capabilities and equipment for their armed forces. They are two very different questions but it seems as though Irish respondents clearly know the difference.

I will move on to alliance building.The so-called Brexit dividend is only a small extra interest rate on top of what was very strong already, namely, Irish support for remaining in the EU. There is a general openness to more co-operation and to building on what is there. Ireland is already highly aware that it needs to build alliances and coalitions. We tend to be quite good at joining coalitions.

Everyone knows that we are already part of the New Hanseatic League, as it is called, which is led by the Netherlands, with Nordic and Baltic states. It is a policy-specific coalition in the eurozone. It might evolve into something broader, but we will have to wait and see. It is worth debating whether Ireland wants to be involved in something broader.

That brings me to a bigger point. Ireland will have a major structural disadvantage after Brexit when we will no longer have a next-door neighbour in the European Union. We are not part of a regional grouping, unlike most EU member states. For example, we can think about the Baltic, Nordic, Benelux and Visegrád countries and so on. This is a major disadvantage for Ireland. Based on some recent studies by the European Council on Foreign Relations of coalition building and cohesion which I highly recommend, only a few EU member states consider Ireland to be a potentially important partner. They include Cyprus and Malta which are small islands like Ireland. It is worth reflecting on this as it suggests we have a major challenge ahead of us after Brexit in alliance building.

All EU member states will try to influence France and Germany. It is wonderful that the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is investing much more in these relationships, including having consulates in Frankfurt and Lyon. Based on how I analyse what came from the European Council on Foreign Relations, perhaps we should be investing much more in relationships with countries such as Denmark and Portugal. They are not the first two countries one might think of in alliance building, but I stress our structural weakness. Why, therefore, have I picked Denmark and Portugal? Denmark joined the Common Market, as it was then called, at the same time we did, with the United Kingdom, in 1973. Like us, it also has a history with referendums on EU treaties. It has similar interests in global trade and agriculture. There is, therefore, a natural alliance of interests and an openness in Denmark to Irish ideas. The same is true of Portugal which has similar interests to Ireland in trade and agriculture. We should not forget that it shares a time zone with Ireland. It also has a very strong Atlantic identity. In other words, we need to start to think a little outside the box and more strategically, rather than tactically. We are extremely good at joining coalitions in policy-specific areas, but we need to think a little more in the medium to long term in a strategic fashion.

As the former Secretary General of the European Commission, Dr. Catherine Day, elegantly noted when she spoke to this committee on 3 April, Ireland has a very defensive image among the rest of the European Union. I am more blunt. Other countries believe we are very quick to say "No" in corporate tax discussions, some defence discussions or on other issues. We are seen as very slow to initiate a policy idea of our own and I cannot think of one right now. I am sure somebody will correct me or I will be criticised for saying this, but that is fine. We must also bear in mind that we have been shown incredible solidarity on Brexit. The other 26 governments in the European Union have shown Ireland incredible solidarity on the backstop. I would be very happy to debate why that is the case, as there is a host of geopolitical, geo-economic and value reasons for it. The others care about a peace process and let us not forget that in itself the European Union is a peace process. However, some day some of those member states may ask for that solidarity to be reciprocated. Some of these countries such as Sweden and Finland are not members of NATO and are facing serious aggression from Russia, including military and non-military action. Are we prepared to support them on their vital national interests of peace and security in the same way they have supported us in our vital national interests of peace and security?

A final challenge will be to develop Ireland-based knowledge of the European Union and depend less on English language analysis from the rest of the non-EU anglophone world. That will be a big challenge for us. Only one Irish newspaper, for example - The Irish Times- has correspondents in the main EU capitals beyond Brussels. They include Paris, Berlin, Rome and Madrid. There is a lot of growth potential to have Ireland-based knowledge in that respect. This weakness could become a strength. After Brexit, Ireland will be the largest EU member state in which English is an official language. Malta is the other. Of course, Ireland will want the relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom, the United States, Australia and Canada to be as strong as possible. That is in all of our interests. In other words, there is great potential for Ireland to position itself as an obvious partner for those in the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and so on who share the objective of having better UK-EU, transatlantic and global relationships. That, in turn, will help us to strengthen at a time when, if we are honest, things have been difficult between the United Kingdom and Ireland. It will help to rebuild trust and relationships with the United Kingdom and strengthen the relationship with the United States and others even more. Brexit has been and will remain challenging for Ireland but in many ways the post-Brexit European Union will be even more challenging for Ireland.