Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 11 June 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Photo of Joan BurtonJoan Burton (Dublin West, Labour)
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It is nice to see the witnesses in here again. Spats between IFAC and the Government are to be expected as par for the course. I wish to discuss the summer economic statement of last year and later this month we will see another one. In hindsight, last year's statement had significant areas of fiction to the point where I would christen it the "summer economic novel". I say that because it is full of exciting potential but some of it is fiction. In terms of the structural work of assessing how finances are run in this country, has IFAC given consideration as to why the statement was such a disappointment on the reality front? Was it a mistake to abolish the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform, DPER, as a separate, independent Department? I know that the delegation members are not policy people but that was a mechanism for assessing what the likely costs and so on were to be. Has that assessment suffered since? More important, do we have room for tax cuts? Clearly, the Taoiseach has earmarked around €500 million for tax cuts. As far as one can see, they are mainly at the upper end in terms of income tax. While we are expanding spending, does IFAC think we have room for tax cuts?

Briefly, what happened last year, and most of the other years after about 2013, is that figures in November, which is after the budget, turned out to be vastly bigger than what had been anticipated in the budget. Has the identification improved of what the November receipts are likely to be? From my own professional experience, that is identifiable in a serious way from after July. Has IFAC had any interaction with the Department of Finance to find out? One gets a surge from the self-employed or the November receipts and then the Minister finds €1 billion for the health service down the back of the sofa.

That is what we were all subjected to last year, which basically made a joke of the work of this committee. Are we likely to have that experience again? Will the €500 million be back of the sofa money once again?

In the statement and detailed statement, the witnesses also referred to echoes of the previous boom and crash, thereby indicating a sort of soft warning about the potential for a difficult period ahead. What do they think has been left out? They referenced the national children's hospital and broadband. The Government's response is that there will be costs of between €200 million and €400 million per year, there is nothing to see there and nothing to worry about. However, this is cumulative and we do not know whether the figures will be flat each year or whether there will be bumps in expenditure in some years.

We have lost all sight of pension provision because that seems to have been long-fingered by the Government. Have the witnesses had any discussions around it? Where have the pension figures gone because we are not hearing them?

There is no green fund for the economy. We have just declared a climate change emergency. I estimate, conservatively, that it will cost roughly €1 billion per year after the first 18 months for public transport, retrofitting houses and farm greening measures. A climate change emergency has been declared by the Dáil. I think we can anticipate some element of a climate change budget.

I have always been an advocate of a minimum effective tax rate. I do not know whether anybody else in the Dáil has ever agreed with me. At this late hour and with the corporation tax structure as it stands, is there is still an argument for bringing in a minimum effective tax rate? I drafted a Bill to this effect some years ago but it did not make any progress.