Lisa Chambers (Mayo, Fianna Fail)
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I thank Mr. Coffey. This is a matter in respect of which the committee should do further work.

I will move on to Brexit. IFAC looked at the ESRI and also the Central Bank. There is quite a gap between the forecasts or predictions of those two entities. The committee previously discussed the fact that Government projections are all based on the central-case scenario to the effect that there will be an orderly Brexit. We can all accept that the possibility of a no-deal Brexit has increased. Nobody knows what type of Brexit we will get or when we will get it. My question is for either Mr. Coffey or Mr. Barnes. In terms of the adjustment to the public finances that might be required in the event of a hard Brexit, I am looking at the percentage of GNI* -the outlook from 2019 to 2023 for the budget balance. This year, we are looking at 0.3%. In the event of a hard Brexit, on the basis of the ESRI figures it will be -1.9%. The figure in the Central Bank's analysis is -3.2%. It continues in that manner right along to 2023, showing that we could face a significant problem. We could require a major adjustment in the public finances. How does that compare with ten years ago? If there is a hard Brexit, what adjustment might be needed? What kind of space are we in? Let us take, for example, the national broadband plan in respect of which there are promises that the bulk of the spending will take place in 2022 and 2023. In the event of a hard Brexit, we could be looking at the debt ratio going up to 111%. In effect, it would be going backwards. How do our guests think we will cope with those major capital projects? What kind of adjustment will be needed?