Barry Cowen (Offaly, Fianna Fail)
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Regarding the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, thankfully we have that forum available to us to independently and critically analyse the performance of the Government and the economy. Since the last soft landing, if we want to call it that, we have had the introduction of EU fiscal rules and departmental expenditure ceilings. They are not complementary to the present scenario. We have consistently exceeded departmental ceilings. The IFAC referred to the breach of the fiscal rules last year and, potentially, again this year.

That is quite damning and critical and focuses on a few key areas. We have spoken briefly about the first one, corporation tax receipts, and the Minister has given his response. I take the point made by the Minister. He has allowed for reduced receipts this time around. That, however, is not to say that the Minister will not use those receipts to bail out Departments, as he has done consistently in the past. The volatility remains consistent. What further analysis has been carried out by the Minister and his Department to measure that volatility and to allow a judgment to be made on when it will cease to be such a safety net for the economy?

The other issue mentioned was the impact of Brexit and the credibility of the forecasts made by the Minister's Department. Much depends on the Government assuming that there will be a soft or an arranged Brexit. It would appear now that it might be quite the opposite. That might have a major detrimental impact on the economy, its performance and other related aspects of the economy thereafter. It is unfortunate that element has not been factored into the forecasts. That may be why the representatives from the IFAC stated that some of the forecasts are not realistic, not credible and not responsible.

I will move on to another point I raised with the representatives of Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, IFAC, concerning the national development plan. We have overruns in two areas of it already. One is with the national children's hospital where in excess of another €350 million has to be provided for in the next three to four years and we have no information yet as to from where that will come. Also, in excess of €1.5 billion has to be provided for the national development plan up to 2027 and another €400 million has to be provided between 2019 and 2023. That is the guts of €3 billion that the Minister has said will come from future revenues. The representatives of IFAC have said, and I agree with them, that is not necessarily credible. It is unrealistic, it is not fair and it is not being straight with the electorate. The Minister said it will not result in any other projects being forgone, that there will be no effect on any other single project in the national development plan across the areas of health, housing, education and so forth. I contend the money to pay for this has to come from higher taxes, new borrowings, current expenditure, cuts or projects forgone in the national development plan. Those are the four options available to the Minister but he has said "No" to those. However, they and I have said it is not credible to say that is the case. How does the Minister respond to that?