Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 11 June 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

Mr. Seamus Coffey:

As an economic strategy, we would be in favour of supporting the economy if there was to be a downturn such as that to which the Deputy referred. The actual process and programmes through which that happens are something we are agnostic on. It is about offering fiscal support to the economy at a time when there is a significant downturn.

Our concern is that if that downturn were to be significant and sufficient space is not created now, when the economy is running well, we may face the trade-off that we faced in 2010, 2011 and 2012, when there was clearly a need to support the economy but there was also a need to restore the financial viability of the State. Those worked in opposite directions. Supporting the financial viability of the State at the time made austerity, tax increases and expenditure cuts necessary whereas support for the economy would have involved the opposite, perhaps undertaking some form of investment programme in line with the suggestion that the Deputy made. Our view is that we should avoid that trade-off. If we are to face a situation where there is a significant downturn, we should have resources available and it is then up to elected representatives and the Government to decide how those resources can be used. We want to avoid facing a situation where rather than boosting the economy and offering support, we end up making a cyclical downturn worse, which we have done repeatedly over the past 40 years. We should make the space available to counter the downturn and if the space is available, we should use it. How those are achieved is a matter for the political process.