Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

It is an inherent feature of the tax system that revenue comes in quite late in the year. In some places the Department of Finance uses relatively prudent assumptions, which means that often one will have this kick-in. It has, however, got worse because of some of the changes in payment dates. Therefore, it has become harder for the Department to predict. One issue we raise in the report - we did not look it at very carefully in the past - is that if one looks at the monthly spending profiles, they are very strange and assume a large fall in December which often does not happen or, at least, not to the same extent. It is important to have accurate monthly profiles, but it is very odd to have this one. I am not sure why the Department does it, but all of these good budgeting practices need to be implemented in order that things will be as predictable as they can be, while recognising there will always be some uncertainty.