Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Tuesday, 16 April 2019

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Agriculture, Food and the Marine

Future of the Beef Sector: Discussion (Resumed)

Mr. Philip Carroll:

The Senator is going back much further than I am. I am referring to three decisions that were taken within the last two years, possibly slightly longer ago.

Deputy McConalogue referred to the price. I mentioned in my opening statement that the meat factories were paying 107% of the EU average price over the course of the year. That was the average price for the year, and at various stages during the course of the year the figure was as high as 112%, particularly in the early part of the year. Prices softened considerably towards the end of the year, for a range of different reasons, including many developments that occurred at European level. These included higher levels of production, a significant increase in cow culls during the course of the year, a surplus of supply on the market, increased imports from Brazil and Argentina and, in the later part of the year, the impact of Brexit. People have spoken about the anxiety caused by Brexit, and the issues that resulted from a softening in demand across Europe and a particular lack of confidence, investments and contracts as a consequence of it. It should be remembered that Brexit was due to happen on 29 March and then on 12 April. It might still happen on 22 May, for all we know. The anxiety around Brexit remains, and that anxiety meant that factories had to make decisions over the course of that period - not just Irish factories but also those exporting from Denmark, France and the Netherlands in to the UK - across different ranges and categories of products. Those exporters had to consider what the situation would be if product was moved to the UK ahead of Brexit and what the dynamic would be. Any movement of goods before Brexit would have been met by a storage problem as there was nowhere to put those products. If the products found their way to the UK and the circumstances around Brexit changed, it could well have led to market losses. If the products were not brought to the UK, it would have meant that companies ran the risk of not being able to cover the cost of that product after paying 40% more than they could afford to pay if they had faced a tariff going into the UK. The market has softened over that period because of all of those sensitivities and what was happening on a broader EU level. Mr. Healy might talk about where we see the market going in the latter part of this year. It must be remembered that a decision on Brexit by the UK Parliament has proved elusive thus far, and that has led to uncertainty which is still hanging over the market.