Dr. Adele Bergin:

I thank the Deputy for that question. Let me try to clarify this. We know that in the long run, the relationship between the UK and the EU will change and as a result we know that the level of output in the Irish economy will be below where it otherwise would have been. When we think about a no-deal scenario, there is more uncertainty around the potential short-run impact of Brexit. We do not know whether the adjustment to this new relationship will be more sudden or more gradual. We can also imagine a situation where there could be additional disruption in the short run, which is what we have done in our disorderly no-deal scenario. The fact that we have called it a no-deal scenario where we have suggested that there will be a more orderly period of adjustment for trade is not assigning it to a particular scenario to which the EU or anyone has or has not agreed. It is more saying that the adjustment to the long run will be more gradual. What we are also trying to do in terms of having a disorderly no-deal scenario is to allow for the fact that there could be additional disruption in the short run. We felt that we had to consider a range of different scenarios to try to capture what may actually happen.