Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 16 January 2019

Joint Oireachtas Committee on Climate Action

Third Report of the Citizens' Assembly: Discussion (Resumed)

Mr. Séamus Walsh:

It can be done in certain circumstances if a specific study is conducted into a particular event. Mr. Moran has mentioned several times the moving of attribution from a scientific footing to getting the information across to the public in a way it understands. There is much debate in the scientific community on the best way to do that. One of the best ways I have heard it described is that we are basically loading the dice. We have had weather patterns before and they have occurred randomly, but with human-induced activities, such as injecting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we are loading the dice and the chances of particular extreme events are increasing everywhere. In some cases we can say a particular event has been made 50%, 100% or 400% more likely, depending on the statistics and models. It is more understandable to people that way. Our activity has loaded the dice and made these events more likely.