Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 16 January 2019

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report: Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform

Photo of Paschal DonohoePaschal Donohoe (Dublin Central, Fine Gael)
Link to this: Individually | In context | Oireachtas source

That is exactly what we are doing. Our report will contain many caveats because we will be looking at figures that were issued by economic bodies in the UK a few weeks ago. What they are trying to do is form a view of an event that has never happened before. Never in history has an economy as large and as integrated with the rest of the global economy as Britain's left a single trading bloc. The forecasts that have been made in the UK are based on many assumptions. Not only would I have to build on those forecasts, there is also the challenge of having to factor in two matters. That is what is giving us food for thought and it is why we are reviewing our figures. One of the matters to which I refer relates to what would be second-order consequences of a disorderly Brexit.

We can model but we can only do so on the basis of what would be the effect on investment. It is very difficult for us to be as clear as we would like to be regarding what could be the consequences of regulatory non-alignment because this is a new risk that is developing. The second matter that we have to factor in is the fact that we are trying to understand - and we have work done on this in the event of a no-deal Brexit scenario - what will be the mitigative policy measures that would be taken and that, in turn, could reduce the net policy effects.

To answer the Deputy's question on whether we are doing this work, the answer is "Yes". We are doing it in light of what has happened. Will that work be made available to the Deputy and the committee? The answer is also "Yes".