Mr. Seamus Coffey:

There have been changes in how these forecasts are made. During the crisis in 2010 and 2011, when the intention was to run the 3% GDP deficit target in 2014 and 2015, the projections were that it would be achieved but it was not clear what policies would be introduced to meet it. Realistic projections were set on the basis of expectations of policy to meet the 3% deficit target by 2015. Once that was achieved, there was a move to flat nominal forecasts but there was no change in anything. In recent years, there has been a change to demographics and to some of the precommitments that were being built in but, again, the forecasts were not realistic as to the likely policy. The forecasts were probably done on a realistic basis during the crisis, to signal that Ireland could deliver the 3% deficit target by 2015, but it was done on a completely unrealistic basis for a few years. There has been some improvement recently but we definitely feel more can be achieved. The overall fiscal figures set out for 2021, 2022 and 2023 are not what is going to happen.

These are numbers that we have to assess. It would be better if it was done on a more realistic basis. I take the point about some of the political issues but a move to medium-term budgeting will happen and an improvement will come in this forecasting. We should be ahead of that, not waiting for it to be forced on us.