Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 5 December 2018

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report November 2018: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

2:00 pm

Mr. Seamus Coffey:

It is not necessarily about dampening housing construction. We agree that housing output is below the required levels and that it needs to increase above the required levels for a time to meet some of the shortfalls. The issue is what happens in the overall economy to avoid additions or stimulus in other areas. One could make room for housing construction through reduced spending in other areas and, possibly, increased taxes in other sectors to allow room for demand in the housing sector. It is not about dampening one particular sector, it is about looking at the overall aggregate of what the economy is trying to do. Increasing housing output to 30,000, 40,000 or 50,000 units per year in an environment where the unemployment rate is 5.5% is difficult to do. If there is continued strong cyclical growth in other sectors, from where do we get the workers to build those houses? If we have to bring them in from abroad we have to have housing in which to accommodate them. If there are workers coming in for other sectors, it may be that we are asking the economy to do too much. If we believe housing is the priority, we should be making the space in the economy to allow that housing output to increase. As I said, it is not necessarily about dampening down a particular sector; it is about making room in the overall level of activity in the economy. There are various ways in which this can be done.