Dr. Pierre-Marie Aubert:

I will not use my slides as it might take a bit too long. I thank the joint committee very much for the invitation. As the slide shows, I will focus in my contribution on the agriculture sector as it represents a key sector for discussion. It accounts for roughly one third of all Irish emissions and is an important economic sector for the country which will be massively impacted on by climate change in the coming years, given how it is organised. It has already been the case this year.

In my contribution I shall focus on shedding light on the propositions made by the Citizens' Assembly and putting them in the perspective of the special report on global warming of 1.5° Celsius. The Citizens' Assembly made three proposals. They were taxing greenhouse gas, GHG, emissions from the agriculture sector and rewarding agricultural practices that sequestered carbon; making the measurement of and reporting on food waste mandatory at every part of food chains; and supporting land use diversification, with specific emphasis on afforestation and organic farming.

I would like to show that while the recommendations get right to the point, they are not enough in the light of the results of the special report. I have already explained what the results are, but I would like to stress what they mean for the agriculture sector. The special report presents three pathways to get to a carbon neutral world by 2050. On all three pathways the agriculture sector plays a key role in at least three ways. First, there is a need to massively reduce the level of emissions from the agriculture sector to zero in a maximum of one or two decades. Second, the agriculture sector has to contribute massively to carbon sequestration. The removal capacity of the sector must be increased. Third, the land and agriculture sector has to support other sectors through the production of biomass that can be used for either energy or material production. When taken together, all of these objectives will greatly affect land use, as Professor Masson-Delmotte said. This, in turn, will impact on at least three other aspects, namely, biodiversity and ecosystem services; food production, food security and food system organisation; and adaptation of the agriculture sector. The way in which we deal with these three objectives simultaneously will impact on the other three aspects.

What does this mean for the Irish agriculture sector? The sector has experienced a similar path to the rest of European agriculture, that is, intensification, concentration and specialisation. Since the 2008 crisis, the targets set for the sector have aimed to increase production, mainly in the ruminants and bovine sector. The targets aim to increase dairy production by 50% in volume and 20% in value by 2020. Following this plan which was issued in 2010 is unlikely to lead the Irish agriculture sector to neutrality in line with the special report's recommendation. It will probably lead to an increase in the size of the ruminant herd and, in turn, increase greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, when the idea is to bring the level of emissions to zero, offer sequestration potential for other sectors and produce biomass for energy and other purposes.

I will finish my remarks on the Irish agriculture sector by stressing that there are options to make it carbon-neutral at sectoral and national level, but in the light of the special report's results, this will not be enough.

There are a couple of implications for the sector if we are to be in line with the recommendations in the special report. First, there is probably a need to decrease the level of dairy production. Even if the efficiency level increases, it has to go hand in hand with a production decrease. We have to have both. Second, it will be dependent on the way in which domestic and international demand evolves. The Irish sector is very much export oriented. If there is still considerable international demand, why should the Irish sector not meet it?

Last but not least, it is important to point out that the aim in the report is carbon neutrality at global level, not at national or sectoral levels, meaning that, given the configuration of Irish agriculture, it is likely Ireland will have to contribute to offset for residual emissions from other parts of the world, especially highly densely populated areas where offsetting possibilities are low. This puts even more pressure on the way on which the land is used and on sequestration ambitions.