Dr. Tom Healy:

If one looks at the total employment in sectors directly impacted by Brexit, including agrifood, chemicals and pharmaceutical, albeit the last is a very different story to the first, one might have a chain reaction which percolates through a particular region. Bearing in mind the fragility of areas, in particular in the north west, which typically have the lowest incomes per capita, one could be looking at a much more negative impact. While that may be counterbalanced by more growth and inward movement in the Dublin area, we do not really know. It could be much worse than the figures mentioned of 20,000 to 40,000 job losses. However, I am not prepared to speculate.

There is no modelling underlying this and it is probably not even possible to estimate the regional impacts in any reliable way. However, it underlines the need to be prudent and ready.