Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 13 June 2018

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Fiscal Assessment Report June 2018: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council

2:00 pm

Mr. Sebastian Barnes:

Demographics is a major issue in many of the ways the Deputy has described, and IFAC examines this carefully. We looked at it in our standstill scenarios. When we refer to the medium-term, which show how much the Government needs to spend to stand still and maintain the same level of services. That reflects assumptions about the changing population and about healthcare. It was encouraging that in the stability programme the Government provided much more information about the long term, in part drawing on the European work. That is important because it is an issue that will rise up the agenda. It is partly demographics, but the bigger effect is healthcare costs and long-term care costs. IFAC plans to do further work in this area. We have seen that the exercises done by Europe and domestically are serious and well thought through, but we want to return to the assumptions because it is important to get them right and this is a subject we will prioritise over the next year.