Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees

Wednesday, 13 June 2018

Committee on Budgetary Oversight

Pre-Budget Scrutiny and Budget Priorities: ESRI

2:00 pm

Dr. Kieran McQuinn:

The Deputy made the point about the rainy day fund being of use in 2008 and 2009. We have a housing conference next Thursday morning and we will delve into these issues in great detail. One policy lesson from the Irish experience over the past ten years especially is that whatever way we do it - that is another conversation - we must ensure a certain number of social housing units are built every year. That is a clear message. Having attended a conference in the UK recently, adding to the housing stock every year is very much felt to be required in British housing policy. If that does not happen, problems accumulate significantly.

I will finish by tying up two themes in the debate. The first is the ageing demographic structure and the second is productivity slowdown. I recently did some work with a colleague in UCD where we looked at the long-term implications of this for growth in Europe. It has very significant implications. Our population structure is ageing but we can consider the degree to which the population structure across Europe is ageing, particularly in Germany, and the long-term forecast is staggering. When the elements are put together, it demonstrates that we seem to be on the precipice of facing a significant reduction in the growth in living standards over the next 30 or 40 years throughout Europe.