Mr. Seamus Coffey:

It would be difficult to be concrete about the period beyond 2020 because it is getting further into the future and changes can happen that we simply cannot predict. At international level, we are likely to see a renewal of the OECD's base erosion and profit shifting, BEPS, project, that has, for all intents and purposes, gone through phase one, and is now at the implementation phase. By 2020, it is likely that the OECD will review what has happened to date. Maybe some of the changes will have happened and we will know who have been the winners and losers. It is clear from the OECD's project to date that Ireland has been one of the winners. There may be other changes at EU level but their implementation seems quite remote.

There is uncertainty around the US, and although tax reform was passed last December, it was done with support from just one side of the US political divide. If there are changes in the make-up of Congress, there is potential for further alterations in the US tax environment. It may not be ideal to have such a narrow window that goes to 2020 but given the nature of the matter we are dealing with, it is hard to go beyond that. We saw a very abrupt increase in 2015 and while there is no indication that will be reversed, it should be borne in mind that it could happen.