Mr. Chris Nightingale:

One question concerned the data we looked at and whether we took into account current pressures on the system in terms of waiting lists. Those were explicitly considered in the way we constructed the model and methodology. For unmet demand we looked at where we had available waiting list data from the National Treatment Purchase Fund with respect to current pressure on services and how the lists could be run down with short-term capacity. It was explicitly considered.

The Deputy's second point was around the growing young population. The Central Statistics Office forecasts do not show a growing young population but rather that it will stay relatively stable. Really it is the elderly population that will grow, with those over 65 going up by 60% over the next 15 years, and those over 85 going up by nearly 100%. Other western economies are not seeing such extreme growth in the elderly populations but they see similar pressures from that elderly population. People are living longer because of better treatment but also living with chronic conditions that still cost the health system money.