Dr. Paul Connolly:

Deputies McConalogue and Pringle each asked a question on fisheries, which I will answer together. The first question is about changing fish stocks and the opportunities for the industry. The science view is that species such as cod, haddock, plaice, pollock and saithe will start moving north as the water warms up. We have no doubt that in the next ten to 20 years, there will be increases in sea temperature that will cause these stocks to move north to get to the colder waters. What will take their place? We will have species that are more southerly distributed, such as boarfish, hake, monkfish and brill, that will move north and take their place. There is also another opportunity here in that the market value of the new species that will move into the waters, such as hake and monkfish, are much more valuable than species such as haddock and cod. There may be an opportunity there, but the extent of the movement north, when it will take place and its variations around Ireland and Europe are extremely uncertain but we definitely think that there will be a displacement of the stocks that the Irish fishing industry will be targeting in ten to 15 years.

Mackerel stocks are really important to Ireland Inc. and we are already seeing a shift in the distribution of where they spawn. The west coast is a really important spawning ground for species such as mackerel, horse mackerel and blue whiting. Every year off Scotland and Ireland, more than 7 million tonnes of these fish spawn there. With the shift in temperature, we are beginning to see slow movement north of these spawning areas and that will affect the fishing industry and the time of the year that boats can go out to exploit the mackerel and get it at the times that it is of the highest economic value. There is major uncertainty around that but we know that there will be significant changes coming.

My last point reflects on a comment by Senator Mulherin on Common Agricultural Policy reform. I will draw on my experience in the Common Fisheries Policy reforms in 2013. The Senator made the point that it is really important to bring people with one. It is really important to bring the farming industry with one in terms of change, just like we brought the fishing industry with us in times of fundamental change around the way the science is done around the stocks and the concept of maximum sustainable yield. We showed the industry that they would have to take short-term pain but the long-term benefits would far outweigh it. We are beginning to see five years later that there are much improved stocks around the Irish coast. We still have work to do, but we brought the industry with us by explaining the concepts and I think it will be really important to do the same in respect of the CAP reform.