Dr. Maev-Ann Wren:

However, the Senator's extrapolation from that to the demand for residential long-term care was very much in accordance with our projections. We project that demand will increase from approximately 29,000 residents now - we are including not only people in the fair deal scheme but people in short-stay beds, transitional care beds, palliative care beds and so on - to a range from 40,700 to 44,600, depending on our assumptions about population and about the evolution of health and disability as people age. We adopt a pretty optimistic view of the evolution of disability in line with recent trends in Ireland. These projections see the proportion of the population aged 65 and over in residential long-term care dropping from 4.5% of the population in 2015 to between 3.9% and 4.4%. What that underlines is that we have quite a challenge in meeting the demand for residential long-term care, even at our most optimistic. The additional places would range between somewhere over 11,000 to over 15,000 at our highest projection. That is based on optimistic assumptions about people living longer, healthier and less disabled lives.

The Senator alluded to home care demand. We see that in parallel with there being a very considerable increase in demand for home care of a similar proportion, 40% to 50% or over 50%, which would mean an addition of some 5.4 million to 7.7 million home help hours over those years by 2030. There is a substantial challenge in terms of both of those.

My colleague, Dr. Keegan, will address some of the other questions.