Mr. Seamus Coffey:

We are saying that one could adopt a different approach. One could say that the impact on trading with the UK of growth in that jurisdiction could have a proportionately larger impact on Ireland relative to, say, a drop in growth in other countries in light of issues relating to proximity, the nature of the relationship between the two countries and the fact that some of the products that are traded between Ireland and the UK are essentially exclusively traded because of the tastes, etc., of people in the two countries. We are just flagging that there is potential for the impact to be larger than that currently built into the forecast. While I am recognising, in the first instance, that a hard Brexit is the central scenario and that compared with those that were produced prior to the UK referendum, recent growth forecasts have been revised down significantly - the revision was approximately half a percentage point of growth every year over the forecast horizon, which is a significant downward revision - we are saying, as with any forecast, one cannot really be sure or certain. We are also saying that there is potential for Brexit to have a more upfront, concentrated and deeper impact than that built into the forecast.

To argue that the Department's approach is flawed is quite difficult because forecasting is, by its nature, a difficult concept. In our view, one should not put too much emphasis on point estimates and state that this is exactly what will happen. There is a range or spread of possible outcomes.