Oireachtas Joint and Select Committees
Wednesday, 6 December 2017
Committee on Budgetary Oversight
Fiscal Assessment Report: Irish Fiscal Advisory Council
2:00 pm
Mr. Seamus Coffey:
We are not saying that the approach is flawed. We are just saying that these estimates cannot be precise and that if one takes a different approach, one may come up with a different answer. In terms of the current forecasts that the Department of Finance has adopted, they are, to be fair, based on a hard Brexit as the central scenario. However, some of the modelling has taken the approach of looking at the impact, particularly on trade. It also considers the impact on our trade with the UK to be equivalent to that of an average trading partner whereas it is likely that the latter is not similar to an average trading partner, particularly for the type of industries which do most of their trade with the UK, which may be in the indigenous domestic sector and which may be labour-intensive. If one considers the UK to be an average trading partner, one may be underestimating those impacts, particularly from the labour side.